Epidemiological Results

Multi-resolution T1D incidence estimates: Quinquennial (5-yr), Biannual (2-yr), and Annual series
Data Cutoff: July 10, 2026Results generated: 2026-07-14 00:41 UTC
Study Area

Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley (MAAV), Colombia

Unique Patients

622

Sex (% Male)

50.8%

Age Cutoff

≤14 years

Dataset Cutoff

2024-12-31

2015–2019

5-Year Period
Overall
18.4per 100,000

95% CrI: 17.2–20.9

Observed: 317Estimated: 390 (357–465)
Female
18.5/100k

CrI: 18–20.4

Est: 196 (191–216) cases

Male
19.2/100k

CrI: 16.4–24.6

Est: 194 (166–249) cases

Pop. denominator (avg. annual): 718,603

2020–2024

5-Year Period
Overall
15.8per 100,000

95% CrI: 13.5–21.5

Observed: 305Estimated: 350 (275–570)
Female
14.6/100k

CrI: 11–21.6

Est: 157 (119–232) cases

Male
18.8/100k

CrI: 15.2–33

Est: 193 (156–338) cases

Pop. denominator (avg. annual): 706,931

5-Year Cumulative Incidence Comparison

High Statistical Power (n ≈ 310 / block)

Sex-Stratified Comparison

Temporal Resolution & Methodological Viability

5-Year QuinquennialAuthoritative
n ≈ 310 cases/period. Low zero-cell sparsity (<15%). Ideal for publication and rigorous Bayesian model comparison (WAIC/LOO).
2-Year BiannualViable (Pooled)
n ≈ 120–138 cases/period. Moderate sparsity (~35%). Detects COVID-19 pandemic shocks (2020–2021) with pooled stratum shrinkage.
1-Year AnnualCrude Rate Only
n ≈ 56–69 cases/year. High sparsity (>60% empty cells). Independent MCMC estimation is unstable; presented as descriptive crude rate.

Population Denominators (DANE Projections)

Municipality2015–20192020–2024
Barbosa52,68057,822
Bello534,940557,589
Caldas70,68772,836
Copacabana70,31274,156
Envigado124,04566,578
Estrella65,32868,743
Girardota50,74654,902
Itagui246,086246,325
Medellín2,313,7722,269,128
Sabaneta64,42066,578
Total (5-year cumulative)3,593,0163,534,657
Average Annual (denominator)718,603706,931